杰瑞股份—业绩超预期,预计下半年维持高增速

时间:2019-07-16 来源:www.habeask.com

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CITIC Construction Investment released an investment research report with a rating of:

Jerry shares (002353)

The company announced the 2019 semi-annual performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the mothers from January to June 2019 will be 465 million yuan to 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150% to 180%.

Brief review

Benefiting from the high prosperity of the drilling and completion equipment industry, the company’s interim report has exceeded its expectations.

The company announced 1H2019 net profit of 465 million yuan to 521 million yuan, an increase of 150% to 180%; among them, 2Q net profit of 355 million yuan to 411 million yuan, an increase of 134% to 170%, exceeding expectations, The main reason is to increase the investment in exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas. The drilling and completion equipment industry has maintained a high boom since the bottoming out in early 2018.

Reduce cost, increase efficiency and improve efficiency, oil companies have been able to adapt to the new normal of low oil prices

After the oil price fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018, the market's judgment on the industry's prosperity was pessimistic. However, according to the grassroots research of our industry chain, even after experiencing a sharp drop in oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, the upstream development and production projects did not appear to be large. In the case of cancellation, there is no order for the signed equipment order. We believe that the reason for this phenomenon is that after the oil price fell in 2014, after 4-5 years of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, most of the oil and gas field production costs in non-OPEC countries are at 30-50 USD/barrel. The level is lower than the current trading price of oil oil 60-65 US dollars/barrel, non-OPEC countries have good investment returns, oil companies have been able to better adapt to the new normal of low oil prices, so we judge Even in the current state of low oil prices, oil and gas equipment will remain in the upward cycle of the economy.

In the medium term, the drilling and completion equipment industry will be in a high boom period

xx据中国石油天然气集团新闻中心报道,2018年中国石油公司钻井能力同比增长10%,压裂同比增长52%。 2019年,石油钻井工作量将增加到15%-20%,水平井将达到2000.页岩气和致密气的非常规油气井数量预计将增加一倍,因此钻井和完井压裂车等设备仍处于短缺状态。自2019年1月以来,中国石油天然气集团公司已经发布了大量的招标和钻井设备配件招标项目,因此我们判断钻井和完井设备的招标数量将在2019年大幅增加。此外,在中期内,30%的页岩气占国内天然气产量的年增长率。如果去除页岩气的产量贡献,常规天然气产量的增长率仅为5%左右,而国务院要求的2020年国内天然气产量。产量2000亿平方米,10%的复合增长率相差甚远。因此,从中期来看,钻井和完井设备行业也将处于高繁荣周期。

判断下半年钻井和完井设备行业将保持高度繁荣,确保2020年业绩增长

2019年1 - 5月,全国天然气累计产量724.9亿平方米,同比增长9.8%。天然气进口3943万吨,同比增长13.4%。对天然气的依赖程度继续增加。页岩气等非常规油气资源确保了能源安全。重点关注。根据产业链的基层研究,随着技术效率的提高和页岩气生产的快速增长,目前国内页岩气开采具有经济性。预计2019年将有148套中国FCC车辆招标,同比增长76%。招标方式将保证2020年的增长。公司2019 - 2020年的营业收入分别增加到69.13亿元和94.11亿元,同比增长率分别为51%和36%; 2019 - 2020年净利润分别增加至12.06亿元和19.3亿元,同比增长。在2020年估值为15倍的情况下,96.1%和60%将目标价格上调至30.22元/股。

风险警告:

1)行业情绪低于预期; 2)订单交付低于预期。

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